PEOPLE-FIRST EXPLAINERS
13 sourced explanations for reading smoke maps, separating modeled smoke from observed AQI, and planning with uncertainty.
MAP READING
A useful wildfire smoke map answers where modeled smoke may be, when the pattern may change, and how uncertain the display is. Read the time first, then the legend, then the location sample.
Read guideFORECAST BASICS
A wildfire smoke forecast estimates how emissions and weather may combine over the next two days. It is strongest as timing guidance and weakest as a guarantee of exact local concentration.
Read guideTIMING QUESTION
Look for a consistent drop across consecutive model samples, not a single favorable hour. Smoke Window reports the first pair of three-hour samples below its planning threshold.
Read guideSOURCE CONTEXT
A nearby incident is context, not proof of origin. Source assessment needs fire detections, observed plume information, transport evidence, and incident reporting together.
Read guideLONG-RANGE TRANSPORT
Canadian wildfire smoke can cross the United States when winds carry elevated or near-surface plumes southward, but a current source claim needs more evidence than one model map.
Read guideMAP COMPARISON
An air-quality map summarizes observed pollutant conditions as AQI. A smoke map estimates smoke-specific mass through space and future time. They answer different questions.
Read guideFORECAST COMPARISON
An official air-quality forecast communicates expected AQI and health context. A smoke forecast models one contributor—fire-emitted particles—and is best used as transport and timing guidance.
Read guideMODEL GUIDE
HRRR-Smoke couples frequent high-resolution weather forecasts with estimates of fire emissions to predict smoke transport across the contiguous United States.
Read guideCONCENTRATION
Modeled smoke concentration estimates smoke-specific particle mass in a volume of air. It is a model quantity with uncertainty, not a monitor reading or health category.
Read guideMODEL VS OBSERVATION
Modeled smoke predicts smoke-specific mass at a grid cell and future time. Observed AQI summarizes recent monitored pollutant conditions for a reporting area.
Read guideOUTDOOR PLANNING
Use Smoke Window to compare timing, then check current official air-quality information before a walk, hike, run, practice, or other outdoor plan.
Read guideFORECAST CHANGES
Smoke forecasts change because both fires and the atmosphere change—and because every new model run begins with newer observations and revised estimates.
Read guideSMOKE OR FOG
Appearance alone cannot reliably separate smoke from fog. Check humidity and visibility, modeled smoke, observed pollutants, satellite analysis, and local agency reports together.
Read guide